A trip to the NCAA Tournament is on the line at Bartow Arena in Birmingham on Saturday. The No. 2 seed Grambling Tigers will meet the No. 8 Texas Southern Tigers in the final of the 2023 SWAC Tournament. Grambling is 24-8 overall and 17-3 against SWAC opponents, including two regular season victories over Texas Southern. Texas Southern, led by former LSU head coach Johnny Jones, is 13-20 overall this season and coming off upset victories over No. 1 seed Alcorn State and No. 5 seed Alabama A&M.
Tipoff is at 5:30 p.m. ET in Birmingham. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Tigers as 6.5-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 132 in the latest Texas Southern vs. Grambling odds. Before locking in any Grambling vs. Texas Southern picks, be sure to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters conference tournament week 76-51 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,200 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now the model has zeroed in on Grambling vs. Texas Southern and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several college basketball odds and betting lines for Texas Southern vs. Grambling:
- Texas Southern vs. Grambling spread: Grambling -6.5
- Texas Southern vs. Grambling over/under: 132 points
- Texas Southern vs. Grambling money line: Grambling -285, TX Southern +228
- Texas Southern: The Tigers are 6-12-2 against the spread in SWAC games
- Grambling: The Tigers are 13-6 against the spread in SWAC games
- Texas Southern vs. Grambling picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Grambling Tigers vs. Texas Southern Tigers
Why Texas Southern can cover
Texas Southern has four players averaging in double figures on offense this season. That includes veteran guard PJ Henry, who was the MVP of the 2022 SWAC Tournament. This year, he is averaging 18.5 points per game in the first two games of Texas Southern’s run, including a game-high 26 points in the semifinal win. Texas Southern is in the top two of the SWAC in field goal percentage, 2-point percentage, and block rate allowed, with 27 offensive rebounds in two SWAC Tournament games.
On defense, Texas Southern dominated in the semifinal, holding Alabama A&M to 35% shooting while generating 16 turnovers compared to only 10 assists. Texas Southern leads the SWAC in defensive rebound rate, grabbing more than 74% of available rebounds, and the Tigers are soundly above-average in assist percentage allowed, field goal percentage allowed and 2-point percentage allowed in conference play.
Why Grambling can cover
Grambling’s defense is the class of the SWAC this season. The Tigers are No. 1 in overall defensive efficiency, including the best opponent shooting metrics in the conference. Opponents are shooting only 43% inside the arc and 31% from 3-point range against Grambling. The Tigers block almost 12% of shot attempts, No. 2 in the SWAC, and Texas Southern has offensive shortcomings.
Texas Southern makes only 30% of 3-point shots and fewer than 70% of free throw attempts while securing fewer than 29% of available offensive rebound opportunities. On the other end, Grambling is in the top two of the conference in overall efficiency, 3-point shooting, and free throw rate. Texas Southern allows the second-most points in the SWAC, with bottom-three marks in free throw prevention, turnover creation rate, steal rate and 3-point percentage allowed.
How to make Grambling vs. Texas Southern picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 135 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Texas Southern vs. Grambling? And which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.
