Penn State vs. Texas A&M prediction, odds, time: 2023 NCAA Tournament picks, March Madness bets by top model


Conference tournament finalists face off in the 2023 NCAA Tournament when the Penn State Nittany Lions and Texas A&M Aggies meet Thursday night in the first round. Both teams were rolling before running into top-five teams in those finals. No. 10 seed Penn State (22-13) had won eight of its previous nine games and put up a valiant fight before losing 67-65 to fifth-ranked Purdue in the Big Ten final. The seventh-seeded and 17th-ranked Aggies (25-9) had won 10 of 11 before running into No. 4 Alabama in the SEC final, and they lost 82-63. The Aggies are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018, while Penn State hasn’t been to The Big Dance since 2011. The Aggies have won all four previous meetings, the last in 2017.

Tipoff is set for 9:55 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Aggies as 3-point favorites in its latest Penn State vs. Texas A&M odds, and the over/under for total points scored is set at 135. Before making any Texas A&M vs. Penn State picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the 2023 NCAA Tournament 79-53 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,300 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Penn State vs. Texas A&M and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2023. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Texas A&M vs. Penn State:

  • Penn State vs. Texas A&M spread: Aggies -3
  • Penn State vs. Texas A&M over/under: 135 points
  • Penn State vs. Texas A&M money line: Nittany Lions +135, Aggies -160
  • PSU: The Nittany Lions are 11-2 ATS in their past 13 neutral-site games.
  • TAMU: The Aggies are 9-8 ATS at neutral sites over the past two seasons.
  • Penn State vs. Texas A&M picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Texas A&M can cover

The Aggies are 23-11 against the spread, including 16-7 ATS when favored by three or more. They have covered the spread in all 10 victories in the past 12, winning all of them by at least five. Texas A&M is built on gritty play on both ends, and All-SEC First Team guard Wade Taylor IV averages a team-high 16.5 points and 1.8 steals per game. The Aggies will be fired up to rebound from the loss to an Alabama team they had beaten 67-61 eight days earlier. They also remember being snubbed last year, so they’ll want to make the most of this NCAA appearance.

Texas A&M allows 65.6 points per game, three fewer than the Nittany Lions, and average four more rebounds (36.8-32.6). Aggies opponents pull down an average of 28.6. Tyrece Radford averages 5.4 rebounds and 13.2 points per game. Dexter Dennis and Henry Coleman III both score 9.2 points and grab 5.7 rebounds. Opponents shoot 40% against the Aggies, 16th-lowest in the nation, and 32.2% from 3-point range. The Aggies force 20.2 fouls per game, 13th-most in Division I, and Taylor makes 87.5% of his free throws. The team shoots 76% from the line.   

Why Penn State can cover 

The Nittany Lions are 20-14-1 against the spread this season, 7-4 ATS as an underdog of three or more points. They also will be eager to get back on the court after a heartbreaking loss to the Boilermakers. PSU is one of the nation’s best shooting teams, averaging 10.4 made 3-pointers per game. They hit almost 39% of their tries from long range, 11th-best in Division I. Nittany Lions senior Jalen Pickett is one of the most well-rounded players in the nation. The All-Big Ten First Team guard averages 17.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, 6.7 assists and one steal per game.

Seth Lundy averages 14.4 points and fellow guard Andrew Funk scores 12.1, and both shoot better than 40% from 3-point range. The Nittany Lions shoot 46.6% from the field overall, 3% better than the Aggies. Lundy hit three of five tries from long range and scored a team-high 19 points in the loss to Purdue. The Nittany Lions had no answer for Big Ten Player of the Year Zach Edey, who scored 30 points. Still, they lost by only two points, and the Aggies don’t have a 7-foot-4 center. Penn State is tied for third-fewest turnovers in the nation at just 8.8 per game.

How to make Texas A&M vs. Penn State picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 142 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine

So who wins Penn State vs. Texas A&M? And which side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.

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