Kentucky vs. Providence prediction, odds, time: 2023 NCAA Tournament picks, March Madness bets by proven model


Greensboro Coliseum hosts a matchup between prominent programs in the 2023 NCAA Tournament on Friday. The No. 6 seed Kentucky Wildcats face the No. 11 seed Providence Friars in a first round tilt of the East Region. Kentucky, led by John Calipari, is 21-11 this season. Providence, led by Ed Cooley, is aiming to stop a three-game losing streak, dipping to 21-11 on the year.

Tipoff is at 7:10 p.m. ET in Greensboro. The Wildcats are 4-point favorites, while the over/under is 143.5 points in the latest Providence vs. Kentucky odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before making any Kentucky vs. Providence picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the 2023 NCAA Tournament 79-53 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,300 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Kentucky vs. Providence and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2023. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Providence vs. Kentucky:

  • Providence vs. Kentucky spread: Kentucky -4
  • Providence vs. Kentucky over/under: 143.5 points
  • Providence vs. Kentucky money line: Kentucky -190, Providence +158
  • PROV: The Friars are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • UK: The Wildcats are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • Providence vs. Kentucky picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Providence can cover

Providence has a highly prolific offense that establishes a potent baseline. The Friars are paced by Kentucky transfer Bryce Hopkins, who leads the team with 16.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. Providence is in the top 20 of the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and the Friars secure more than 35% of missed shots on the offensive glass. The Friars rank in the top 30 of the nation in free throw attempts, averaging 22.1 per game, and Providence shoots 50.9% from 2-point range, 35.1% from 3-point range and 74.5% at the free throw line this season. 

Ed Cooley’s team generates 14.7 assists per game while turning the ball over on only 16.9% of possessions, and Kentucky is below the national average with a 16.7% turnover creation rate on defense. Providence is also quite strong in free throw prevention on the defensive end, and the Friars are well above-average in defensive rebound rate (73.4%), block rate (11.5%), and assist prevention (12.8 per game).

Why Kentucky can cover 

Kentucky’s offense is its centerpiece this season, but the Wildcats also have encouraging numbers on defense. John Calipari’s team led the SEC with a 75.5% defensive rebound rate in conference games, and Kentucky’s season-long metrics in opponent shooting are strong. The Wildcats allow only 48.3% shooting on 2-point attempts and 33.1% on 3-point attempts this season, and block more than 10% of shot attempts. Opponents average only 11.7 assists per game against Kentucky, and the Wildcats also bring a top-15 national mark in adjusted offensive efficiency. 

The Wildcats are in the top three of the country in offensive rebound rate (38.7%) and blocked shot rate allowed (5.2%), and Kentucky is shooting more than 35% from 3-point range. Kentucky is above-average in free throw creation rate, and the Wildcats commit a turnover on only 17.3% of offensive possessions. Providence struggles to a 16.9% turnover creation rate on defense, and Kentucky is averaging 15.3 assists per game.

How to make Providence vs. Kentucky picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 146 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Kentucky vs. Providence? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.

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