Kansas State vs. TCU prediction, odds, time: 2023 Big 12 Tournament picks, best bets from proven model


The No. 3 seed Kansas State Wildcats and the No. 6 seed TCU Horned Frogs will meet for the third time this season when they square off during the 2023 Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals on Thursday night. Kansas State had its four-game winning streak snapped in an 89-81 loss at West Virginia last Saturday. TCU closed the regular season with a 74-60 setback at Oklahoma last weekend. 

Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. The Horned Frogs are favored by 2 points in the latest Kansas State vs. TCU odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under is set at 147. Before entering any TCU vs. Kansas State picks, you’ll want to see the college basketball predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters conference tournament week at 76-51 on all top-rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,200 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Kansas State vs. TCU. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college basketball odds for TCU vs. Kansas State:

  • Kansas State vs. TCU spread: TCU -2
  • Kansas State vs. TCU over/under: 147 points
  • Kansas State vs. TCU money line: Kansas State +118, TCU -140
  • Kansas State vs. TCU picks: See picks here

Featured Game | Kansas State Wildcats vs. TCU Horned Frogs

Why Kansas State can cover

Kansas State should have a large contingent of fans in attendance on Thursday night, and it went 16-1 at home this season. The Wildcats are projected to be as high as a No. 2 seed in some NCAA Tournament projections, with head coach Jerome Tang being named the Big 12 Coach of the Year. They were picked to finish last in the preseason conference poll, but they outperformed expectations throughout the campaign. 

Keyontae Johnson averages 17.8 points per game, which ranked second in the conference, while Markquis Nowell adds 17.0 points. Nowell was the league’s top scorer in conference play, averaging 19.5 points per game. TCU is playing without sophomore center Eddie Lampkin Jr., who averaged 6.3 points and 5.9 rebounds in 24 games. Kansas State has covered the spread in four of its last five games, and TCU has only covered twice in its last nine contests. 

Why TCU can cover

TCU picked up some momentum at the end of the regular season, beating Texas Tech and then-No. 9 Texas in a pair of close games. The Horned Frogs were 16-4 (5-3 Big 12) when preseason Big 12 Player of the Year Mike Miles Jr. injured his knee during the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. They lost four straight games without Miles, who scored 15 points when he returned in a 100-75 win against Oklahoma State on Feb. 18. 

Miles, a junior guard, leads TCU with 17.2 points and 2.6 assists per game. Senior guard Damion Baugh averages 13.0 points and a team-high 6.0 assists per game, while senior forward Emanuel Miller is also in double figures with 12.8 points and 6.5 boards. Miller had 23 points, eight rebounds and four assists in TCU’s 82-68 win against Kansas State at home on Jan. 14. 

How to make TCU vs. Kansas State picks

The model has simulated Kansas State vs. TCU 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under on the total, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins TCU vs. Kansas State? And which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is 76-51 on its top-rated college basketball picks this season, and find out.

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