2023 March Madness predictions: NCAA bracket expert picks against the spread, odds in Friday’s Round 1 games

The NCAA Tournament field will be whittled down to 48 teams by the time first-round action picks up Friday. By the time the sun sets and we enter the weekend, 32 teams will be left — and they may not be the ones you expect given how March Madness lived up to its name Thursday.

The only problem you may have is consuming all the action that’s on the way this week. But if the only struggle with March Madness you have is finding second, third and fourth screens to catch the action, then you’re probably doing alright, huh?

Of course, getting some extra skin in the games may help put you in the tournament spirit (if you aren’t already there). Below, our CBS Sports experts have provided their insight with picks straight up and against the spread for some of the top games on Friday’s extended slate. Our expert brackets may offer some help on this front as well.

While surviving and advancing is clearly what matters for most, we care about whether these teams will cover their spreads, and we’ve tracked the season since November to be able to offer our own thoughts on every game.

Be sure to stick with CBS Sports throughout the rest of the month for NCAA Tournament coverage through the end of the Final Four. Let’s take a look at our expert picks for the final day of the first round on Friday.

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook | All times Eastern

Featured NCAA Tournament picks

(3) Baylor vs. (14) UCSB

Friday, 1:30 p.m. | TNT, March Madness Live: UCSB, which won 27 games this season, was likely a trendy 14-over-3 pick for people in their pools, which was … a mistake. This Baylor team has struggled to be consistent at various points this season, but it can score in bunches led by the second-most efficient offense in the sport and a top-40 3-point shooting team by percentage. Bears roll big. Pick: Baylor -11.5

(5) Saint Mary’s vs. (12) VCU

Friday, 2 p.m. | TBS, March Madness Live: Everyone loves a good 12-over-5 pick — as do I — but I’m not going out on a ledge in this specific matchup. Saint Mary’s has been a borderline top-10 team across KenPom and BartTorvik’s metrics all season. I lean laying the points with the Gaels here. The real play is probably the under; it’s one of the few matchups of the first round between two teams with top-20 defenses in adjusted efficiency ratings. Pick: Saint Mary’s -34

(4) UConn vs. (13) Iona

Friday, 4:30 p.m. | TBS, March Madness Live: Think UConn wins this and advances, but I also think Iona, led by Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino, will give the Huskies a run for their money and keep it within single digits. This Gaels team is well-coached, works hard on defense and has size to mitigate — maybe not eliminate, but mitigate — the advantages UConn has with its athleticism and length. Pick: Iona +9

(3) Gonzaga vs. (14) Grand Canyon

Friday, 7:35 p.m. | truTV, March Madness Live: Gonzaga has a top-10 scoring margin on the season and enters the NCAA Tournament leading the country in that category over its last three games. Grand Canyon is a better opponent than your middle-of-the-pack WCC foe, but the Zags have too much length and athleticism to not win this one with ease. Pick: Gonzaga -15.5

(8) Memphis vs. (9) Florida Atlantic

Friday, 9:20 p.m. | TNT, March Madness Live: FAU has 31 wins on the season rolling into the NCAAs after dominating Conference USA with a nice blend of balance on offense and defense. The sticking point here in taking FAU is fading Memphis guard Kendric Davis — a do-it-all scorer and creator who might be the best at his position — but I’m betting coach Dusty May has a game plan to at least make things difficult on him. I like the Owls to win this one outright, so I’ll take the 2.5 points. Pick: FAU +2

(4) Indiana vs. (13) Kent State

Friday, 9:55 p.m. | TBS, March Madness Live: What we’ve seen from Indiana the last month is equal parts encouraging and terrifying if you’re projecting its prospects ahead to the tourney. There’s no telling what you’re getting from this team. But in this spot, with a lot of people thinking Kent State can pull this off, coach Mike Woodson will have IU ready. Big game from Trayce Jackson-Davis incoming, big second half from Jalen Hood-Schifino — and an IU win (by more than the number). Pick: Indiana -4